Possum Trot X

December 3, 2006

How time flies when you're having fun. I still remember vividly Possum Trot I. It was one of my first orienteering races. It was by far the toughest orienteering race I had done at that point (to this day, not many compare for physical duress). Of course, the fact that I was so bad at that time that I was out wandering in the brutal cold for over three hours, rather than running through the course with the leaders in two probably had something to do with that.

For this year's decennial edition, Possum Trot Orienteering Club has promised the best event yet. The orienteering community seems willing to believe them as the start list is a record 48 runners converging from Wyoming, Manitoba, Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to join the usual crew from Missouri and Kansas.

As usual, Orienteering Kansas hosts a short even the day before. This year's version is a sort of sprint around the University of Kansas. The opening two thirds of the course are classic urban sprint, with short legs snaking through the buildings. The course finishes with some longer legs though the open areas of "Mount" Oread. Yes, apparently people in Kansas are willing to confer the Mount title on a 30m hill.

Sprint map.

The course is fun, despite icy conditions. I manage to stay upright throughout and avoid any terrible errors to finish a credible fourth overall.

The next morning dawns with temperatures threatening last years record Possum Trot low of 13F. By the start, it's warmed to a balmy 15. The venue is the Heartland Conference Center, which is a hilly mix of relatively open (by KC standards) woods and fields. I'm sure that I'll be fine running through the woods, but I worry about the fields. I finally decide I'll be OK with just a jersey and wind shirt. My bigger concern is my hands which are freezing in my lightweight gloves. I don't want to wear anything heavier or I'll have trouble handling the map, so I just hope that they'll feel better after I get going.

The route will be 2 loops and you can skip one control each loop.

Maps: Loop 1, Loop 2.

The opening pace is fast, which is no surprise. I normally let myself slip back a bit on the way to the first control and look over skip decisions and get into the map. With the bigger field this year, I decide that might not be wise as there will likely be a big logjam at the first control. I run hard to stay with the leaders. I don't look at my map nearly as much as I should, but it's hard not to be confident when you're running alongside Mikell Platt. We actually do overrun the control just a bit, but get back to it before the herd converges. I'm the third person to punch and my hands are completely frozen so I can't get the punch to work. With runners pouring into the control, I make a last feeble attempt to make some sort of mark on my card and then drop the punch as the angry mob forms. Although it was a pretty ragged leg, I'm glad to be through it without getting caught in the feeding frenzy at the punch.

I did read my map enough to realize that skipping #2 was at least as good as any other skip on this loop. Mikell seems rather non-commital, but as soon as I start towards #3, he runs back into the lead. Tom Carr and David Frei are right with me as well with a bunch of others snapping at our heels. The route from 1 to 3 couldn't be simpler as a road takes you right there so we hit the gas to try to stay in front of the hounds. I briefly take the lead again on the way to 4, but Mikell passes me running up the hill to the fence. He starts to get a gap, but is slowed crawling under the fence. Seeing that the bottom wire isn't barbed, I fall into a hook slide and slither under on the ice popping up on the other side right behind him. It's probably the smoothest move of my life and it yields hoots from the chasers. (Ironically, Mikell had recently chastised me on AttackPoint for being too willing to go into a slide when I loose my footing).

While I stay in contact on the way to 5, it's becoming clear that Mikell is going to get away simply on the basis of foot speed. When I see him taking the around route to 6, I decide it's time to let him go and start running my own race. I take the redline and by the time I get to the control, Mikell is gone. I don't think the around route was significantly faster (although I don't think it was slower, either) - I just couldn't hold that pace anymore.

Fortunately, neither could anybody else. Tom Carr is with me, but the rest of the pack is in ruins. Tom and I keep a good pace to 7, but boom the control to the right. That allows David to catch up, along with a reformed pack of Jerritt Johnston, Randy Hall, and Justin Bakken. While I would have just as soon stayed clear, I don't mind running in a pack at this point. I particularly don't mind when the next leg starts making no sense on the map. I'm about to panic when I realize that I've been reading the leg from 8 to 9 rather than the leg from 7 to 8. Had I been on my own, that mistake could have been very costly.

Tom and I again get a gap leaving 10, but David takes a better route and beats us to 11 by a few seconds. As I pass him on the way to 12, I get the sense that he might be pretty close to his limit. Pushing now might just be a game breaker. I push hard up the hill to the map exchange where Mary Jones is waiting as always to take splits and offer refreshments. I take a quick gulp of water (I decided not to bring any on account of the cold, but I'm feeling plenty warm by now) and ask her what place I'm in. I'm relieved when she says I'm second; I had feared that there might have been another fast pack that didn't take the skip at 2.

I take the left road route to 14. Tom Carr is still reasonably close behind, but there's no sign of David or Jerritt. I assume they've taken the trail route to the right. The two routes look about the same to me, so I'm surprised when I get to 14 and can't see them. No time to worry about that; I push on to 15, noting that Tom seems to be dropping back.

My route to 15 goes way too far right, but I still have enough of a gap that I figure now's a good time to really push for some separation. The next few legs are easy navigation in low-visibility woods - probably my best bet to get out of sight. I push to (perhaps a bit beyond) the limits of my navigation. I take safe routes (following the stream to 17, the trail to 18, and the trail most of the way to 19) and crash through the light green woods as best I can. Leaving 19, I'm reasonably certain that I have the gap I need.

There's still the question of what control to skip. On the way to 14, I had decided that 24 was best because it replaced the longest woods leg with an easy leg through the fields (which have been very fast, despite the ice). Taking another look, the skip of 23 is mighty tempting, but I stay with my plan. In retrospect, I'm sure 24 was best (see skip analysis below) and it was just my legs crying out to cut off as much distance as possible.

The remainder of the course is uneventful. Aside from a dumb route to 23 (taking the longer field route on the right over the direct field route on the left), I'm pretty clean. I do miss 29 to the left, but have no trouble relocating and finding the control. I drop about a minute there, but no more. Any time a 1-minute bobble is your biggest mistake in a 2-hour race, you know you've had a good day.

I finish second, which is my best overall placing at the Trot. I'm even more pleased to find that Mikell's lead only grew by 2 minutes over the second loop (for a total winning margin of 7 minutes). I guess that early pace took a toll on him as well. Nice to know he's human, even if he is a faster form of human than me. Justin comes next just edging out Tom. David nips Jerrit to round out the top 5.

The ten years of the Trot have been a reasonable summary of my overall orienteering career. Some good finishes, some bad, but always hanging in there and always bringing back some good memories. Here's hoping for 10 more.

And now, back by popular demand, it's...

Eric's Absurdly Detailed Skip Analysis

This year's skips at the Trot were made simpler by the fact that there were two loops with one skip per loop. This meant you couldn't skip 2 in a row (unless you chose to skip the exchange control, 13, which would be insane since you had to go there to get your second map anyway). On the other hand, the nature of the area meant that assessing a skip was more difficult. Rather than simply hacking off the most distance, you really had to look at running speed. The fields were much faster than the woods. As always, this analysis is based on the speeds of the top finishers.

Loop 1

• 2: This is the most obvious skip, and it's pretty good, but not as good as everybody thought. The main downside is that it comes so early and you don't want to break with the pack right away. However, most people took this one, so the pack stayed together. With so many taking this skip, there isn't much good data on the alternative. The fastest times reported for 1-2-3 are 7:57 and I think the leaders could have done it 30 seconds faster than that. The pack did 1-3 in 2:44, so this skip saves about 5 minutes.
• 6: Darius Konotopetz was the only top runner to take this. I think it's quite good, although I don't have his split to confirm. The pack did 5-6-7 in 11:56. 5-7 doesn't save any distance (it's actually slightly longer), but it's 1100m of fields and roads with just a little woods on each end. Hitting 6 puts you in the woods the whole way (unless you take the big around route to 6 like Swampfox did). I was running field legs at around 6:30/K, so this leg should be in the 8 minute range for a savings of about 4 minutes.
• 7: This is the other obvious skip and it's also quite good. I (like many others) thought it inferior to 2 because the distance removed is through the fields. 6-7-8 was 9:53 for Tom Carr and I, but we goofed up 7 a bit. It should have been more like 9:30. Steven Graupner did 6-8 in 5:09 for 4:20 saved.
• 11: Another obvious one that suffers because the distance saved is through fields. Tom and I did 10-11-12 in 7:18. None of the top runners took this, but 10-12 is just 400m of fields, so we'll call it 2:45 for 4:30 saved.

Loop 2:

• 14: Not obvious, but worth a look. 13-15 is all trail running, about the same as 13-14. The savings is basically 14-15, which was just over 3 minutes. Nobody took this.
• 15: Saves a bunch of distance, but it's all fast running. 14-16 is about the same as 15-16, maybe 10 seconds slower since it's not downhill. That makes the difference 14-15 again. Rudy Schwarz was the only person to take this.
• 16: Replaces the light green running from 16-17 with a road run - and on a highway at that. I did 15-16-17 in 5:56, but was pushing really hard there to get away from Tom. The rest of the top 5 did it a minute slower. 15-17 is 700m of highway and then 30 seconds through the woods to the control - call it 3:30 for 2:30 - 3:00 saved. Nobody took this.
• 22: I'm surprised this one wasn't more popular as it's quite obvious. I guess most people again concluded that too much of the distance saved was through fields. Randy Hall skipped this, but I don't have his split. It looks like 21-23 is about 15 seconds faster than 21-22, so the difference is 22-23 plus a bit. 22-23 was 3:47 for me, but I took a dumb route. I think the real savings is more like 3:30.
• 23: The most popular skip among the top 10 and I can't figure out why it was so appealing. Sure, it saves distance, but it replaces field running with woods. 22-24 was a bit over 3 minutes. 22-23 is slightly longer than that. Only 3 of the top 10 to ran 23-24 and I don't have splits from any of them. It's 300m of fields and 150m of woods, so it should be around 3:30. Total savings just under 4 minutes.
• 24: Taken by the top 2 finishers. Saves all of 23-24 and replaces the 800m woods leg of 24-25 with a similar length leg of fields and roads. Sorry to be smug, but this one should have been spotted by more of the top runners. Savings is at least 5 minutes.
• 25: Not at all obvious, but it's at least as good as 23 (Mike Eglinski took this when David Frei split by skipping 23 and they came back together at 26). As with the skip of 24, it replaces the 24-25 woods leg with fields and roads. 24-25-26 was a bit over 13 minutes. I don't have splits from Mike, but the leg is 300m of woods and 1100m of fields and roads. Should be around 9:00 for a savings of 4 minutes.

Some might debate it, but I think it's fairly clear that 24 is objectively best. Not enough to turn the race on it's head, but enough that some of the close finishes could have gone the other way if 24 had been skipped rather than 23. I think that's the way skip decisions should play: not decisive, but still worth getting right. Another fine job by Mike Shiffman in putting together interesting choices.